This paper is concerned with the problem of how to speed up computation for Gaussian process models trained on autocorrelated data. The Gaussian process model is a powerful tool commonly used in nonlinear regression applications. Standard regression modeling assumes random samples and an independently, identically distributed noise. Various fast approximations that speed up Gaussian process regression work under this standard setting. But for autocorrelated data, failing to account for autocorrelation leads to a phenomenon known as temporal overfitting that deteriorates model performance on new test instances. To handle autocorrelated data, existing fast Gaussian process approximations have to be modified; one such approach is to segment the originally correlated data points into blocks in which the blocked data are de-correlated. This work explains how to make some of the existing Gaussian process approximations work with blocked data. Numerical experiments across diverse application datasets demonstrate that the proposed approaches can remarkably accelerate computation for Gaussian process regression on autocorrelated data without compromising model prediction performance.

Column generation and branch-and-price are leading methods for large-scale exact optimization. Column generation iterates between solving a master problem and a pricing problem. The master problem is a linear program, which can be solved using a generic solver. The pricing problem is highly dependent on the application but is usually discrete. Due to the difficulty of discrete optimization, high-performance column generation often relies on a custom pricing algorithm built specifically to exploit the problem's structure. This bespoke nature of the pricing solver prevents the reuse of components for other applications. We show that domain-independent dynamic programming, a software package for modeling and solving arbitrary dynamic programs, can be used as a generic pricing solver. We develop basic implementations of branch-and-price with pricing by domain-independent dynamic programming and show that they outperform a world-leading solver on static mixed integer programming formulations for seven problem classes.

The rise of autonomous, AI-driven agents in economic settings raises critical questions about their emergent strategic behavior. This paper investigates these dynamics in the cooperative context of a multi-echelon supply chain, a system famously prone to instabilities like the bullwhip effect. We conduct computational experiments with generative AI agents, powered by Large Language Models (LLMs), within a controlled supply chain simulation designed to isolate their behavioral tendencies. Our central finding is the "collaboration paradox": a novel, catastrophic failure mode where theoretically superior collaborative AI agents, designed with Vendor-Managed Inventory (VMI) principles, perform even worse than non-AI baselines. We demonstrate that this paradox arises from an operational flaw where agents hoard inventory, starving the system. We then show that resilience is only achieved through a synthesis of two distinct layers: high-level, AI-driven proactive policy-setting to establish robust operational targets, and a low-level, collaborative execution protocol with proactive downstream replenishment to maintain stability. Our final framework, which implements this synthesis, can autonomously generate, evaluate, and quantify a portfolio of viable strategic choices. The work provides a crucial insight into the emergent behaviors of collaborative AI agents and offers a blueprint for designing stable, effective AI-driven systems for business analytics.

Federated learning has emerged as an essential paradigm for distributed multi-source data analysis under privacy concerns. Most existing federated learning methods focus on the ``static" datasets. However, in many real-world applications, data arrive continuously over time, forming streaming datasets. This introduces additional challenges for data storage and algorithm design, particularly under high-dimensional settings. In this paper, we propose a federated online learning (FOL) method for distributed multi-source streaming data analysis. To account for heterogeneity, a personalized model is constructed for each data source, and a novel ``subgroup" assumption is employed to capture potential similarities, thereby enhancing model performance. We adopt the penalized renewable estimation method and the efficient proximal gradient descent for model training. The proposed method aligns with both federated and online learning frameworks: raw data are not exchanged among sources, ensuring data privacy, and only summary statistics of previous data batches are required for model updates, significantly reducing storage demands. Theoretically, we establish the consistency properties for model estimation, variable selection, and subgroup structure recovery, demonstrating optimal statistical efficiency. Simulations illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Furthermore, when applied to the financial lending data and the web log data, the proposed method also exhibits advantageous prediction performance. Results of the analysis also provide some practical insights.

Multi-output Gaussian process (MGP) is commonly used as a transfer learning method to leverage information among multiple outputs. A key advantage of MGP is providing uncertainty quantification for prediction, which is highly important for subsequent decision-making tasks. However, traditional MGP may not be sufficiently flexible to handle multivariate data with dynamic characteristics, particularly when dealing with complex temporal correlations. Additionally, since some outputs may lack correlation, transferring information among them may lead to negative transfer. To address these issues, this study proposes a non-stationary MGP model that can capture both the dynamic and sparse correlation among outputs. Specifically, the covariance functions of MGP are constructed using convolutions of time-varying kernel functions. Then a dynamic spike-and-slab prior is placed on correlation parameters to automatically decide which sources are informative to the target output in the training process. An expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is proposed for efficient model fitting. Both numerical studies and a real case demonstrate its efficacy in capturing dynamic and sparse correlation structure and mitigating negative transfer for high-dimensional time-series data. Finally, a mountain-car reinforcement learning case highlights its potential application in decision making problems.

Multivariate decision trees are powerful machine learning tools for classification and regression that attract many researchers and industry professionals. An optimal binary tree has two types of vertices, (i) branching vertices which have exactly two children and where datapoints are assessed on a set of discrete features and (ii) leaf vertices at which datapoints are given a prediction, and can be obtained by solving a biobjective optimization problem that seeks to (i) maximize the number of correctly classified datapoints and (ii) minimize the number of branching vertices. Branching vertices are linear combinations of training features and therefore can be thought of as hyperplanes. In this paper, we propose two cut-based mixed integer linear optimization (MILO) formulations for designing optimal binary classification trees (leaf vertices assign discrete classes). Our models leverage on-the-fly identification of minimal infeasible subsystems (MISs) from which we derive cutting planes that hold the form of packing constraints. We show theoretical improvements on the strongest flow-based MILO formulation currently in the literature and conduct experiments on publicly available datasets to show our models' ability to scale, strength against traditional branch and bound approaches, and robustness in out-of-sample test performance. Our code and data are available on GitHub.

We consider the following problem in computational geometry: given, in the d-dimensional real space, a set of points marked as positive and a set of points marked as negative, such that the convex hull of the positive set does not intersect the negative set, find K hyperplanes that separate, if possible, all the positive points from the negative ones. That is, we search for a convex polyhedron with at most K faces, containing all the positive points and no negative point. The problem is known in the literature for pure convex polyhedral approximation; our interest stems from its possible applications in constraint learning, where points are feasible or infeasible solutions of a Mixed Integer Program, and the K hyperplanes are linear constraints to be found. We cast the problem as an optimization one, minimizing the number of negative points inside the convex polyhedron, whenever exact separation cannot be achieved. We introduce models inspired by support vector machines and we design two mathematical programming formulations with binary variables. We exploit Dantzig-Wolfe decomposition to obtain extended formulations, and we devise column generation algorithms with ad-hoc pricing routines. We compare computing time and separation error values obtained by all our approaches on synthetic datasets, with number of points from hundreds up to a few thousands, showing our approaches to perform better than existing ones from the literature. Furthermore, we observe that key computational differences arise, depending on whether the budget K is sufficient to completely separate the positive points from the negative ones or not. On 8-dimensional instances (and over), existing convex hull algorithms become computational inapplicable, while our algorithms allow to identify good convex hull approximations in minutes of computation.

Tensor clustering has become an important topic, specifically in spatio-temporal modeling, due to its ability to cluster spatial modes (e.g., stations or road segments) and temporal modes (e.g., time of the day or day of the week). Our motivating example is from subway passenger flow modeling, where similarities between stations are commonly found. However, the challenges lie in the innate high-dimensionality of tensors and also the potential existence of anomalies. This is because the three tasks, i.e., dimension reduction, clustering, and anomaly decomposition, are inter-correlated to each other, and treating them in a separate manner will render a suboptimal performance. Thus, in this work, we design a tensor-based subspace clustering and anomaly decomposition technique for simultaneously outlier-robust dimension reduction and clustering for high-dimensional tensors. To achieve this, a novel low-rank robust subspace clustering decomposition model is proposed by combining Tucker decomposition, sparse anomaly decomposition, and subspace clustering. An effective algorithm based on Block Coordinate Descent is proposed to update the parameters. Prudent experiments prove the effectiveness of the proposed framework via the simulation study, with a gain of +25% clustering accuracy than benchmark methods in a hard case. The interrelations of the three tasks are also analyzed via ablation studies, validating the interrelation assumption. Moreover, a case study in the station clustering based on real passenger flow data is conducted, with quite valuable insights discovered.

A large volume of accident reports is recorded in the aviation domain, which greatly values improving aviation safety. To better use those reports, we need to understand the most important events or impact factors according to the accident reports. However, the increasing number of accident reports requires large efforts from domain experts to label those reports. In order to make the labeling process more efficient, many researchers have started developing algorithms to identify the underlying events from accident reports automatically. This article argues that we can identify the events more accurately by leveraging the event taxonomy. More specifically, we consider the problem a hierarchical classification task where we first identify the coarse-level information and then predict the fine-level information. We achieve this hierarchical classification process by incorporating a novel hierarchical attention module into BERT. To further utilize the information from event taxonomy, we regularize the proposed model according to the relationship and distribution among labels. The effectiveness of our framework is evaluated with the data collected by National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB). It has been shown that fine-level prediction accuracy is highly improved, and the regularization term can be beneficial to the rare event identification problem.

We introduce PyVRP, a Python package that implements hybrid genetic search in a state-of-the-art vehicle routing problem (VRP) solver. The package is designed for the VRP with time windows (VRPTW), but can be easily extended to support other VRP variants. PyVRP combines the flexibility of Python with the performance of C++, by implementing (only) performance critical parts of the algorithm in C++, while being fully customisable at the Python level. PyVRP is a polished implementation of the algorithm that ranked 1st in the 2021 DIMACS VRPTW challenge and, after improvements, ranked 1st on the static variant of the EURO meets NeurIPS 2022 vehicle routing competition. The code follows good software engineering practices, and is well-documented and unit tested. PyVRP is freely available under the liberal MIT license. Through numerical experiments we show that PyVRP achieves state-of-the-art results on the VRPTW and capacitated VRP. We hope that PyVRP enables researchers and practitioners to easily and quickly build on a state-of-the-art VRP solver.